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Chinese economy, North Korean nukes top regional agenda

±â»ç½ÂÀÎ 2011.06.09  16:53:36

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- Coverage from the 6th Jeju Forum for Peace & Prosperity, May 27 to 29

   
¡ã From left, Jeju Governor Woo Keun Min, former Philippines President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, Director of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference Zhao Qi Zheng, East Asia Foundation Chairman Gong Ro Myung, and Prime Minister of Korea Kim Hwang Sik during the opening ceremony of the 6th Jeju Forum. Photo courtesy Jeju Special Self-Governing Province

An estimated 1,000 international experts and attendees of the 6th Jeju Forum for Peace & Prosperity gathered in the six-star Haevichi Hotel & Resort on May 27 to discuss the opportunities and challenges that Asia now faces.

During the 65 sessions that spanned three days, two themes emerged that were often connected: the opportunities and potential concerns surrounding China’s recent economic growth; and North Korea, specifically the possibility of reunification and its nuclear program.

Though only touched upon during the first day of sessions, the “rise of China,” a loaded term often used during the forum, was directly addressed by Zhao Qi Zheng, director of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Party Consultative Conference, on May 28 during the opening ceremony.

After speeches by Jeju Governor Woo Keun Min and East Asia Foundation Chairman Gong Ro Myung in which they both praised the forum and acknowledged its great promise, Korean Prime Minister Kim Hwang Sik said, like those who spoke before him, that Asia was on the rise, but cautioned, “In reality, many problems lie ahead.”

Kim pointed to the need to denuclearize North Korea as it “disrupts peace in the entire region,” and compounds the arms race in Asia currently underway.

Zhao then took the stage, calling the growth of China a “rather romantic idea” that is also “very realistic” and should be addressed.

Anticipating the as yet unmentioned concern whether China will try to overhaul the international system to better reflect their own booming economy, Zhao stressed the need for “more political reliance on each other” so that all Asian countries can continue to prosper together.

He added that China is dependent upon foreign investments for growth.

In the week before the conference, North Korean leader Kim Jong Il made a spontaneous trip to China, reigniting concerns in South Korea over the nature of their relationship. Zhao addressed China’s position, saying that Kim wanted to examine China’s development and nothing more.

He argued that countries should not take the same stance towards North Korea as the US, seeing as how China’s aid to the North gives it more persuasive power.

“I ask for your continued trust in the Chinese country,” he concluded, dismissing concerns about China’s growing power. Its geopolitical position, he said, places a particular responsibility on China that it must fulfill.

During the session “The Rise of China: Opportunities and Challenges,” this issue was taken up by a five-member panel of experts from China, America, Japan, Korea and Malaysia who attempted to give it context while at the same time addressing what this shift in economic power might mean.

Tan Sri Mohamed Jawhar Hassan, chairman of the Institute of Strategic and International Studies Malaysia, said that the term the “rise of China,” “is a bit misleading,” since it is not only China but all countries in the region that are experiencing growth. Though some more rapidly than others.

“Very often we like to put this in binary terms; the rise of one power and the fall of another … I don’t think that is happening. Far from it,” Hassan said.

In the next 50 years China is predicted to become the world’s economic powerhouse, but “the US will not be far behind” quantitatively, he said, and qualitatively — based on a countries expenditure, population and average per capita GDP — “the US will be by far No. 1.”

Introduced by discussion moderator Nayan R. Chanda as the “possible future president of China,” Xuetong Yan, director of the Center for Chinese Studies at Tsinghua University, agreed with Hassan. Though China may reach America’s economic position, “it will take a very long time for them to catch up with the US in terms of a comprehensive nation power,” Yan said.

Yoichi Funabashi, former editor-in-chief of The Asahi Shimbun, said that Japan has profited economically from the rise of China, though “serious challenges” are on the horizon.

“I think the direction and nature of that rise of China is extremely uncertain. For instance what kind of capitalism China’s economy has been evolving?” he said. “It is very much difficult to define and it is sometimes conceptually, intellectually and politically very much a challenge to all of us.”

Is China going “to try to make their fu ture compatible with the international order, or are they going to explore a very different set of goals?”

John G. Ikenberry, a professor at Princeton University, was skeptical about Funabashi’s worries. “Whether it wants to or not China is going to find that it lives in a world that it will have more authority and leadership, and that’s the good news. The bad news is … it won’t be able to make a new system.”

In the session titled “Is Nuclear-free East Asia Possible?: Opportunities and Constraints,” Zhenqian Pan, senior advisor for the China Reform Forum said the interdependency of nations in the region is currently being threatened by “the deep-seated mistrust of major players in this region.”

This distrust has created an arms race in Asia, with several of the countries like China, India, Pakistan, Russia and North Korea acquiring nuclear weapons technology.

Seeing as the US has used nuclear weapons in Asia, they must also be factored into the equation, said Nobuyasu Abe, director of the Center for the Promotion of Disarmament and Non-Proliferation at the Japan Institute.

Since the US and Russia have over 20,000 nuclear warheads combined, Asian countries will not dismantle their stockpiles until these Cold War veterans do so first.

“Then we have to think about China,” Abe said, referring to its undisclosed number of nuclear weapons. Without knowing how many China actually has, Abe doubts the United States and Russia will lower their stockpiles.

On the other hand, Professor Kang Choi at the institute of Foreign Affairs & National Security, insisted that South Korea has a different priority when it comes to nuclear disarmament.

“For South Korea, maybe the nuclear deterrent is right now the most important issue for us because of the North Korea nuclear challenge,” Choi said.

North Korea’s nuclear program has in the last few years further distanced the two sides of the bisected country and though there have been frequent talks, no clear resolution is in sight.

“The concept of reunification is not a very natural concept anymore,” said Lee Geun, a professor in the Graduate School of International Studies at Seoul National University and keynote speaker for the “Korean Reunification and New Opportunities” session.

Lee pointed to the some 70 years of separation on the peninsula as the cause for younger generations to view the North as a foreign country. It should no longer be viewed as unification, he said, but “a creative destruction” where two countries become one.

“I think that we could hardly be at a more unpromising time to be discussing reunification,” said Mark Clements Minton, president of the Korea Society. South Korea is in “the worst diplomatic situation in over a decade.”

Minton said “it may be useful to look at our problems in dealing with North Korea in a different way,” suggesting the creation of initiatives that directly deal with issues at the core of the inter-Korean divide.

“There seems to be no reason [why there can’t be] ... a Pyongyang Institute in Seoul or a Seoul Institute in Pyongyang manned by former North and South Korean diplomats … or perhaps supplemented by academic experts,” said Minton. This would address core inter-Korean issues like the lack of public mutual recognition and channels of communication.

Walter Klitz, who recently returned from a trip to North Korea, said, “In order to achieve a peaceful reunification from my point of view it is strongly required to interrupt the loop of recrimination and to renounce the use of force.” And the best way to do this, he suggested, would be to establish deeper economic relations.

The revenues generated from the Keumgangsan tours, he said, “are almost dispensable,” when considering China imported 4.6 million tons of coal from North Korea and 80,000 tons of molybdenum, which is used in industries that require alloys.

“For a high-tech country like South Korea this might be very interesting to deal with North Korea on natural resources,” said Klitz.

Masao Okonogi, emeritus professor at Keio University’s Faculty of Law and Graduate Studies, stated that since North Korea now has a nuclear program, the situation has changed. Speaking in Korean, he asserted that due to the North’s relationship with China, they will not merge with its southern neighbor.
“China is trying to lead North Korea towards a new economy,” he said, and the way to counter this is to “increase economic relationships with North Korea.”

Darryl Coote darrylcoote@jejuweekly.com

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